Castle Rock Investing

Independent Guide, Trusted Partner.

Trump

Will Trump Repeal the Fiduciary Rule?

by

For those who work for Broker-Dealers and Registered Investment Advisers, no one is certain whether Donald Trump or the Republican Party will attempt to eliminate the Fiduciary Rule or keep it intact. But before we get ahead of ourselves it is important to ask one question, will Donald Trump or the Republican Party be able to dismantle the Fiduciary Rule before it becomes enforceable on April 10th, 2017?

Although we cannot answer this question in confidence just yet, repealing this legislation will be quite a task for a few reasons:

  1. With the Fiduciary Rule being effective since April 2016, the rule cannot just simply be thrown out by an executive order. It is also worthy to note that the legislation took 6 years to be written, so the likelihood of the DOL eliminating it is extremely slim.
  2. Broker-Dealers, Insurance Firms, and Investment Advisers have already spent significant resources in designing compliance friendly products and re-inventing their business platforms. So, if the rule were to be thrown out, the government could have dozens of lawsuits on their hands, especially from those who were for the rule.
  3. Despite the Republican Party holding the majority in Congress, they still do not have enough seats to overthrow a filibuster from the Senate. In addition, repealing legislation can take months or even years, during which the rule could have been enforceable for a notable amount of time.
  4. With Donald Trump already planning to tackle dozens of issues in his first 100 days, repealing the Fiduciary Rule is more than likely not his top priority. The rule will also become enforceable by the 80th day of his presidency.

Although it appears that the Fiduciary Rule is here to stay, we will keep you updated if there is anything that will threaten the rule.

Water Cooler Wisdom: Third Quarter 2016

by

By Mack Bekeza

The Presidential Election and What to Know

Despite the pleasant performance in the stock market for 2016, investors are becoming more doubtful about the global economy as a whole in regards to how “pleasant” future growth will be. On top of that, The U.S is having one of the most interesting presidential elections in history. With both of the leading candidates making big promises to the public, how will these proposed actions affect the economy as a whole? But perhaps the biggest question and misconception that U.S investors have is “How does the President affect the economy?”

For our response, we want to point out 3 big myths about how the President affects the economy

            1. Capital Markets perform better when Republicans are in the White House:  

Although many consider the Republican party as the “pro-business” party, if you look at the returns of the Dow Jones Industrial Average since 1897, the markets do not give a hoot about who is president.

2. Major pieces of legislation get passed once the new President assumes office:

With the exceptions of the Affordable Care Act and Dodd-Frank, The United States rarely makes major policy changes in one major swoop, rather in small increments.

3. The President has as much of an impact on the economy as consumers and businesses:

     Although the media places major scrutiny on the President over the U.S Economy, government spending only accounts for 17.7% of total GDP, while the remaining 82.4% comes from consumer spending, private investments, and foreign trade.

So… will this presidential election completely change the way we invest? More than likely no. However, it is important to note the U.S GDP is expected grow between 1.5 to 2% over the next decade. This is primarily due the recent and projected dismal growth in the U.S labor force along with over $30 trillion in private wealth being transferred to younger generations. In other words, it is more crucial to observe how Millennials begin to take charge of the U.S Economy rather than who becomes president.

Attached are slides that provide more detail regarding presidential elections and major leading economic indicators.

©2016 Castle Rock Investment Company. All rights reserved. Please share your insights and comments with us at Mack@CastleRockInvesting.com.