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Water Cooler Wisdom: Fourth Quarter 2014

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Water Cooler WisdomMajor events at the close of 2014, specifically the fourth quarter of 2014, included: the abnormally low prices of oil; the unique position of the Federal Reserve and the US dollar; US Treasury Rates poised (still) to rise; and American manufacturing ramped up to march on ahead of other world leaders, while an embroiled Europe awaits the coming year.

“Returns and Valuations by Style”

Significantly improved from the previous quarter, overall market growth was strong in the final quarter of 2014; though the annual return was less than half of the growth from 2013’s phenomenal success.

“Energy Price Impacts”

By a landslide, the most compelling story of the closing chapter of 2014 was the low oil prices brought upon by OPEC with ferocious Saudi leadership striving to re-establish control of global oil markets. Oil production outpaced consumption, therefore supply outpaced demand, and led to a build in inventories. The supply is not uniformly distributed, though, and the United States is responsible for the fastest supply growth since 2013; however, consumption in the US did not grow nearly as much, and China continues to contribute to the most global demand growth. Notably, Europe and Japan’s consumption declined.

The population most effected by gasoline prices, of course, is the lowest quintile of the population. If oil production declines, and global demand growth picks up, then oil prices could move higher, but if the demand trends persist, and supply growth remains robust with neither the US nor OPEC yielding any production, then oil prices could move further down. Economists overall are split either way, but most agree that the current low prices are abnormal. The Federal Reserve expects that any resulting deflationary pressure from current low oil market prices will be transitory, rather than permanent, and that the economy will achieve the 2% target inflation over time.

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Water Cooler Wisdom

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Water Cooler Wisdom

September 30, 2014

Nothing is private anymore: celebrity photos are leaked across the Internet, everyone knows that Ben Bernanke was unable to refinance his mortgage and we can even follow professional football players’ misconduct. This technology, which allows us to follow the economy more closely than ever, shows that our economy is growing. Over the last quarter, the economy grew 4.6% and it is poised to continue this growth in the long run.

Here is what we expect: the US economy will continue to grow in the short and long term, interest rates will eventually rise (which is a good thing!), and you will be able to manage your money more effectively in a stable U.S. economy.

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What if the global currency market stops using the dollar?

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For a more extensive response to this question, click here.

Some people fear that the US dollar will stop being so popular, and that will cause an intolerable rise in inflation.  If the US is to experience intolerable inflation, it will likely be as a result of both domestic and international forces; therefore, the international role of the dollar does not tell the whole story.

Inflation is the general increase in prices of goods and services in an economy. The annual percentage change in the general price index (the consumer price index) measures the inflation rate of an economy. As each unit of currency buys less in the market, the economy is experiencing positive inflation because the general price of goods in that economy rises.

The growth of the money supply itself is seen as a tool to cause inflation, though it is not always effective at doing so. When an economy experiences a “liquidity trap”, the increase in the money supply does not yield anticipated inflation. Liquidity traps are believed to be the reason that major money injections sometimes do not result in predictable consumer price index changes (thus, do not result in proportional inflation).[1]

Right now the global demand for the dollar eats up much of the monetary base that would otherwise cause core price inflation in the US. There are no expectations that international institutions will dump their dollar holdings into the market as this action would ruin their own currency value (which is measured against the dollar), and no precedent for a country acting so poorly in their own, and global, interest. If it were to happen, the international community as a whole would intervene to protect the US dollar and thus their currencies before inflation hit. Therefore, academia is reluctant to assign a numerical quantity that determines when the dollar stops being the reserve currency.[2]

 

Do you have questions about the currency, the economy, or other financial matters? If you have a question or topic in mind for our blog, reach out to us directly through our website, or through our LinkedIn page.

Katherine Brown is a Research Associate at Castle Rock Investment Company with a Master’s in Global Finance, Trade and Economic Integration from the University of Denver.


[1] For a sampling of Krugman’s work concerning liquidity traps, see: Krugman (1998) “Japan’s Trap” at https://www.princeton.edu/~pkrugman/japans_trap.pdf; Krugman and Eggertson (2011) “Debt, Deleveraging and the Liquidity Trap: A Fisher-Minsky-Koo Approach” for the Federal Reserve of New York and Princeton University at http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/files/PKGE_Feb14.pdf;

[2] Institutions funding the research considered include: Princeton, the Department of the Treasury, IMF, National Bureau of Economic Research, the Federal Reserve, and the London School of Economics.

Water Cooler Wisdom

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By: Katherine Brown, Research Associate, Castle Rock Investment Company

Water Cooler WisdomThe end of the 2nd quarter of 2014 left the global banking sector bracing from the fallout of a weak quarter. In moments of weak growth, we are reminded of the need to diversify our portfolios. Just as it is important to eat a balanced meal, it is important to balance your investment plate.

The US economy grew only 2.9% during the second quarter, which was a result of costly weather conditions, negative global trade relationships, and state and local government spending habits (often due to the extreme weather conditions). An investment portfolio is challenged – but not inherently devastated – by this kind of quarterly strife. For our purposes, more reliable data come from cyclical indicators because they provide more dependable data on economic behavior and trajectory. Capital spending, consumer confidence, orders vs. inventory and PMI indices all indicate good conditions for the economy to pick up. In other words, our markets are doing well, despite the special difficulty in the second quarter.

The Federal Reserve reoriented its goals to respond to the significant gain in jobs this past quarter. Unemployment, which reached 6.1%, is ever-nearing the long-run full employment waterline of 5.4%. While we should expect that economic growth is consistent with unemployment, if we push past full employment at 5.4%, we could face inflation. Instead, the government will work to improve total factor productivity in addition to the labor market’s full employment. This means more capital equipment and greater output per worker.

Since we have already attained 6.1% unemployment, the unemployment goal for 2014, the Fed downgraded the growth forecast for the next year to 2.2% from 3%. The comparison between Inflation and Core Inflation indicates pressures for wage growth and an increase in rental cost that creates a condition where a shift in policy will be necessary. Core inflation is at 1.95%, while bond yields are 0.6%. The economy is tightening and inflation is rising, so long-term rates should go up.

Concerns in the bond market are that Owners of US Treasury Bonds are not as concerned with the pricing of bonds as natural actors would be in an unimpeded market. The Federal Reserve adjusts investments in the bond market monthly through Quantitative Easing (QE2), which is anticipated to end in October 2014. The tapering out of Fed bond purchases means that bond rates will go up. Other distortions in the market will be due to major investors such as the Bank of Japan, which maintains excessive bond holdings that can destabilize the market should it sell off a significant amount. However, these behaviors are unlikely because of the impact it would have on their own economies, not to mention on diplomatic relations.

The bond market is a good place to invest as a defensive structure since a sharp rise in bond yields is unlikely in the future. Quantitative Easing is designed by the Fed to keep bond rates low for the long term, approximately 2% interest rate goals for this coming year. The bond market should be a reliable part of your portfolio this year, but as the economy grows, the equities market will likely exceed bond market growth.

The equities market has the best potential for year-to-year growth, despite holding the greatest risk to investors. The returns and valuations by style indicate the year-to-year earnings remain strong. The fourth quarter has the greatest potential to be the strongest of all this year. Overall recovery from 2009 market lows indicate continued recovery as the expanding data available to research stable market activity show greater returns, but do not indicate bubbles similar to the boom and bust of the last recession.

The rise in interest rates and confidence show that both should rise even further over the next 12 – 18 months, although cyclical sectors are best offset by investment in 10-year treasury bonds as a stabilizing measure to varying performance in equity markets.

Other economies spent the last quarter dealing with their own problems. In a unique twist, the EU’s growth was softened by France’s macroeconomic strife, while the European periphery provided the hopeful signs for growth. China picked up market growth after a rough first quarter, as Japan similarly indicated recovery from the sales tax increase, though neither will likely overcome the first quarter’s poor growth unscathed.

As we approach full employment, traditional investment strategies generally begin to hedge against inflation by including investments in commodities and real estate where GDP growth is perceived to be less influential than in other sectors. Quantitative Easing provides some “carbohydrates” to the US economy, thus allowing bond and equity markets to both grow in the short run. However, this promise is impermanent and may lead to trouble ahead. For a balanced meal, we turn to the foreign bond and equity markets. Thus, we foresee that the most robust investment palette will diversify not only across markets, between American equities and bonds, but across borders to take advantage of equities and bonds abroad.

Katherine Brown completed a Master’s degree in Global Finance, Trade, and Economic Integration from the University of Denver. Her research and writing focus on international monetary economics and central banking. She can be reached at Katherine@castlerockinvesting.com.

Water Cooler Wisdom – First Quarter 2014

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Water Cooler Wisdom 1Q12Water Cooler Wisdom 1Q12A great deal happened in the world during the first quarter of 2014. The ECB may be pursuing quantitative easing, the Federal Reserve continues to send mixed messages about tapering, China is slowing down, the U.K. is set to grow the faster than any other advanced nation, and Gwyneth and Chris have split…or have they? According to the International Monetary Fund, the global growth outlook is positive, although the recovery is somewhat shaky and uneven. While there is a widespread fear of deflation worldwide, the hawks still stand by their position that uncontrolled inflation may still be in the future. In this economic environment, it is necessary to sift through a significant amount of noise to see the real economic picture.

The United States economy continues to grow but it is not going gangbusters. The polar vortex, along with the seemingly unending winter weather in the Eastern part of the United States, slowed economic growth during the first quarter of 2014. Regional economic indicators, including vehicle sales and employment, increased during the somewhat more temperate month of March, undoubtedly leaving residents and businesses looking forward to sunnier weather ahead. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.7% and GDP increased by 2.6%. According to some analysts, the current inflation rate of 1.6% (see: Consumer Price Index) represents a lower bound to US inflation, The Federal Reserve continues to be committed to tapering but it seems somewhat reluctant to say ‘when’ due to continued concern about inflation. While the market will likely continue to experience spasms at every word Janet Yellen breathes, it may be more business as usual for the Fed in the near future.

Equities (see: Returns and Valuations by Style) have increased slightly but remain in what some would consider normal territory. It is important to note, however, that some sectors of the equities market have increased by 275.2% since the market low in March 2009. Overall, the market growth is not enough to risk substantial changes in inflation or interest rates but also not slow enough to decelerate overall growth. Essentially, it’s smooth-sailing.

As of April 9, 2014, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the Federal Reserve and the FDIC approved a new rule requiring the eight largest U.S. banks to greatly increase their leverage ratio (essentially, they need to hold more capital). This rule is in response to the increased emphasis on macro-prudential regulation and the fact that many are still shaking in their boots from the aftershocks of the Global Financial Crisis. This rule will help to ensure that systemically important banks have the capital to lend in any economic environment, guarding against a credit contraction if market conditions were to negatively change. This may mean easier lending for smaller banks whose leverage ratio is not quite as high but since this rule does not take effect until 2018, the real results are yet to be seen.

Since the start of 2014, the discussion of unconventional monetary policies has been more, well, unconventional. The European Central Bank may be in the process of become policy bedfellows with the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan and Bank of England by implementing quantitative easing as a monetary policy tool. The ECB has been considering this as well as negative interest rates to protect from decreasing inflation. These negative interest rates would affect deposits at the ECB since these banks would be required to actually pay to park their money. The monetary policy motive for this would be that these banks, avoiding the extra ‘tax,’ would rather lend out their money to the private sector. This would spur growth and ideally protect against the low inflation. Quantitative easing is a little trickier for the Eurozone. Whereas the US and UK can purchase bonds from their own individual markets, the ECB has 18 countries to choose from. Buying from France could give an unfair advantage, whereas purchasing bonds from Greece could throw Germany into an uproar. Some economists suggest that the ECB purchase Treasuries from the Fed to help unwind our rounds of quantitative easing. What a ‘taper tantrum’ that might cause.

While the economy is improving, there is still a long road ahead. However, given that holding cash yields a 0% return, it is still an attractive time to invest, regardless of the current interest rate climate (see: Asset Class Returns). So, go out, get invested, become diversified and have a wonderful spring.

Laurel Mazur is Castle Rock Investment Company’s Research Associate. Laurel Mazur is a graduate student at the University of Denver pursuing a dual Master’s degree in Economics and Global Finance, Trade, and Economic Integration. Most of her research and writing focuses on international monetary economics and central banking. She can be reached at Laurel@CastleRockInvesting.com.