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Water Cooler Wisdom: Fourth Quarter 2014

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Water Cooler WisdomMajor events at the close of 2014, specifically the fourth quarter of 2014, included: the abnormally low prices of oil; the unique position of the Federal Reserve and the US dollar; US Treasury Rates poised (still) to rise; and American manufacturing ramped up to march on ahead of other world leaders, while an embroiled Europe awaits the coming year.

“Returns and Valuations by Style”

Significantly improved from the previous quarter, overall market growth was strong in the final quarter of 2014; though the annual return was less than half of the growth from 2013’s phenomenal success.

“Energy Price Impacts”

By a landslide, the most compelling story of the closing chapter of 2014 was the low oil prices brought upon by OPEC with ferocious Saudi leadership striving to re-establish control of global oil markets. Oil production outpaced consumption, therefore supply outpaced demand, and led to a build in inventories. The supply is not uniformly distributed, though, and the United States is responsible for the fastest supply growth since 2013; however, consumption in the US did not grow nearly as much, and China continues to contribute to the most global demand growth. Notably, Europe and Japan’s consumption declined.

The population most effected by gasoline prices, of course, is the lowest quintile of the population. If oil production declines, and global demand growth picks up, then oil prices could move higher, but if the demand trends persist, and supply growth remains robust with neither the US nor OPEC yielding any production, then oil prices could move further down. Economists overall are split either way, but most agree that the current low prices are abnormal. The Federal Reserve expects that any resulting deflationary pressure from current low oil market prices will be transitory, rather than permanent, and that the economy will achieve the 2% target inflation over time.

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How the World Sees the Dollar

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Let’s talk about dollars. In response to interest by our clients and readers, we will develop an explicative account of the dollar’s role in world trade and exchanges. Our series about the role of the dollar among different parties, such as global investors, traders, and other economic actors, is the beginning of an ongoing pursuit to fully develop dollar discussion with our community.

Today, let’s talk about what makes the dollar appealing to international actors. In this post, we will discuss:

1)    What percentage of world trade is denominated in US dollars

2)    What makes the dollar so appealing to international actors

In order to explain how international trade denominated in the dollar behaves, we first need to step back to see how banks that use various currencies and/or are in different countries settle transactions between one another. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) provides the best public data on this subject area.

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) provides services for central banks, monetary authorities, and international financial institutions. Though the BIS is not the only source for foreign exchange, it is a reliable source for research of the international financial system, including foreign exchanges. The BIS assists in the settlement of foreign exchange trades (FX) across countries, so that central banks can settle exchanges from cross-border financial flows. In this way, countries maintain a more stable international financial system.[1]

BIS
Produced by Castle Rock Investment Company

The simple process to transfer dollars to any foreign value is described below, with the BIS as an observational authority. The BIS is responsible for Basel rulings, collecting and publishing research with the cooperation of central banks, and identifying instances of international banking fraud.

What percentage of world trade is denominated in dollars today?

The BIS uses data provided by Central Banks in their Triennial Central Bank Survey (most recently updated in April 2013) to monitor and analyze the foreign exchange market. The US dollar is the dominant currency vehicle in international trade, comprising one side of 87% of foreign exchanges as of April 2013 (according to the Bank for International Settlements’ “Triennial Central Bank Survey”). This means that 87% of settlements between banks on an international level are either to or from US dollars.

Not only is the dollar a popular trading vehicle, it is also very popular to save; dollar holdings abroad are actually larger than the amount used to trade. These values are called “foreign reserves” and are researched globally by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The US dollar comprises 60.9% of allocated reserves globally, meaning that the dollar denominates the majority of global reserves in government and institutional accounts.

Source: International Monetary Fund, http://www.imf.org/external/np/sta/cofer/eng/
Source: International Monetary Fund, http://www.imf.org/external/np/sta/cofer/eng/

So what makes the dollar universally attractive?

The dollar is popular because it is a hard currency, and more consistent than any other. Due to the framework and history of the international trading system, the dollar has been the dominant currency since the end of WWII and the creation of the Bretton Woods institutions.[2] Currently the dollar does not face strong competition from other currencies, which are either more strictly controlled by their governments through capital controls or do not have the established history of a banking sector capable of providing credit to international institutions and/or governments.[3]

There is no magic number, to the extent of my education and research, to determine when a reserve currency is no longer a reserve currency. Though the current fragmented international monetary system lacks the stability of an idealized model, the exchange system in place is accepted and adopted by all international trading countries. While the reminbi is growing in popularity as a reserve currency for developing countries, it does not significantly compete with the US dollar at this time. The high international demand for dollars, especially in times of crisis, and the current construction of the international trade and banking systems ensure that the US dollar is fundamental to global economic stability.

Do you have questions on or expertise to add to this conversation? What do you hope to hear about? Add to the conversation on LinkedIn or email me directly at Katherine@CastleRockInvesting.com. 

Katherine Brown is a Research Associate at Castle Rock Investment Company.

[1] For a more expansive account of the ways that the BIS contributes to financial stability, see their website www.bis.org.

[2] The most popular recent book about the establishment of the Bretton Woods system is called The Battle of Bretton Woods: John Maynard Keynes, Harry Dexter White and the Making of a New World Order by Benn Steil (2013). I highly recommend it for a historic perspective on our institutions.

[3] Many monetary economists hold this theory, but the most popular is Barry Eichengreen of Berkley, California. For further reading on the dollar, the IMF produces regular research papers that take about 30 pages to say a more complicated version of what I just said in two sentences.

Water Cooler Wisdom

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By: Katherine Brown, Research Associate, Castle Rock Investment Company

Water Cooler WisdomThe end of the 2nd quarter of 2014 left the global banking sector bracing from the fallout of a weak quarter. In moments of weak growth, we are reminded of the need to diversify our portfolios. Just as it is important to eat a balanced meal, it is important to balance your investment plate.

The US economy grew only 2.9% during the second quarter, which was a result of costly weather conditions, negative global trade relationships, and state and local government spending habits (often due to the extreme weather conditions). An investment portfolio is challenged – but not inherently devastated – by this kind of quarterly strife. For our purposes, more reliable data come from cyclical indicators because they provide more dependable data on economic behavior and trajectory. Capital spending, consumer confidence, orders vs. inventory and PMI indices all indicate good conditions for the economy to pick up. In other words, our markets are doing well, despite the special difficulty in the second quarter.

The Federal Reserve reoriented its goals to respond to the significant gain in jobs this past quarter. Unemployment, which reached 6.1%, is ever-nearing the long-run full employment waterline of 5.4%. While we should expect that economic growth is consistent with unemployment, if we push past full employment at 5.4%, we could face inflation. Instead, the government will work to improve total factor productivity in addition to the labor market’s full employment. This means more capital equipment and greater output per worker.

Since we have already attained 6.1% unemployment, the unemployment goal for 2014, the Fed downgraded the growth forecast for the next year to 2.2% from 3%. The comparison between Inflation and Core Inflation indicates pressures for wage growth and an increase in rental cost that creates a condition where a shift in policy will be necessary. Core inflation is at 1.95%, while bond yields are 0.6%. The economy is tightening and inflation is rising, so long-term rates should go up.

Concerns in the bond market are that Owners of US Treasury Bonds are not as concerned with the pricing of bonds as natural actors would be in an unimpeded market. The Federal Reserve adjusts investments in the bond market monthly through Quantitative Easing (QE2), which is anticipated to end in October 2014. The tapering out of Fed bond purchases means that bond rates will go up. Other distortions in the market will be due to major investors such as the Bank of Japan, which maintains excessive bond holdings that can destabilize the market should it sell off a significant amount. However, these behaviors are unlikely because of the impact it would have on their own economies, not to mention on diplomatic relations.

The bond market is a good place to invest as a defensive structure since a sharp rise in bond yields is unlikely in the future. Quantitative Easing is designed by the Fed to keep bond rates low for the long term, approximately 2% interest rate goals for this coming year. The bond market should be a reliable part of your portfolio this year, but as the economy grows, the equities market will likely exceed bond market growth.

The equities market has the best potential for year-to-year growth, despite holding the greatest risk to investors. The returns and valuations by style indicate the year-to-year earnings remain strong. The fourth quarter has the greatest potential to be the strongest of all this year. Overall recovery from 2009 market lows indicate continued recovery as the expanding data available to research stable market activity show greater returns, but do not indicate bubbles similar to the boom and bust of the last recession.

The rise in interest rates and confidence show that both should rise even further over the next 12 – 18 months, although cyclical sectors are best offset by investment in 10-year treasury bonds as a stabilizing measure to varying performance in equity markets.

Other economies spent the last quarter dealing with their own problems. In a unique twist, the EU’s growth was softened by France’s macroeconomic strife, while the European periphery provided the hopeful signs for growth. China picked up market growth after a rough first quarter, as Japan similarly indicated recovery from the sales tax increase, though neither will likely overcome the first quarter’s poor growth unscathed.

As we approach full employment, traditional investment strategies generally begin to hedge against inflation by including investments in commodities and real estate where GDP growth is perceived to be less influential than in other sectors. Quantitative Easing provides some “carbohydrates” to the US economy, thus allowing bond and equity markets to both grow in the short run. However, this promise is impermanent and may lead to trouble ahead. For a balanced meal, we turn to the foreign bond and equity markets. Thus, we foresee that the most robust investment palette will diversify not only across markets, between American equities and bonds, but across borders to take advantage of equities and bonds abroad.

Katherine Brown completed a Master’s degree in Global Finance, Trade, and Economic Integration from the University of Denver. Her research and writing focus on international monetary economics and central banking. She can be reached at Katherine@castlerockinvesting.com.

Water Cooler Wisdom – First Quarter 2014

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Water Cooler Wisdom 1Q12Water Cooler Wisdom 1Q12A great deal happened in the world during the first quarter of 2014. The ECB may be pursuing quantitative easing, the Federal Reserve continues to send mixed messages about tapering, China is slowing down, the U.K. is set to grow the faster than any other advanced nation, and Gwyneth and Chris have split…or have they? According to the International Monetary Fund, the global growth outlook is positive, although the recovery is somewhat shaky and uneven. While there is a widespread fear of deflation worldwide, the hawks still stand by their position that uncontrolled inflation may still be in the future. In this economic environment, it is necessary to sift through a significant amount of noise to see the real economic picture.

The United States economy continues to grow but it is not going gangbusters. The polar vortex, along with the seemingly unending winter weather in the Eastern part of the United States, slowed economic growth during the first quarter of 2014. Regional economic indicators, including vehicle sales and employment, increased during the somewhat more temperate month of March, undoubtedly leaving residents and businesses looking forward to sunnier weather ahead. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.7% and GDP increased by 2.6%. According to some analysts, the current inflation rate of 1.6% (see: Consumer Price Index) represents a lower bound to US inflation, The Federal Reserve continues to be committed to tapering but it seems somewhat reluctant to say ‘when’ due to continued concern about inflation. While the market will likely continue to experience spasms at every word Janet Yellen breathes, it may be more business as usual for the Fed in the near future.

Equities (see: Returns and Valuations by Style) have increased slightly but remain in what some would consider normal territory. It is important to note, however, that some sectors of the equities market have increased by 275.2% since the market low in March 2009. Overall, the market growth is not enough to risk substantial changes in inflation or interest rates but also not slow enough to decelerate overall growth. Essentially, it’s smooth-sailing.

As of April 9, 2014, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the Federal Reserve and the FDIC approved a new rule requiring the eight largest U.S. banks to greatly increase their leverage ratio (essentially, they need to hold more capital). This rule is in response to the increased emphasis on macro-prudential regulation and the fact that many are still shaking in their boots from the aftershocks of the Global Financial Crisis. This rule will help to ensure that systemically important banks have the capital to lend in any economic environment, guarding against a credit contraction if market conditions were to negatively change. This may mean easier lending for smaller banks whose leverage ratio is not quite as high but since this rule does not take effect until 2018, the real results are yet to be seen.

Since the start of 2014, the discussion of unconventional monetary policies has been more, well, unconventional. The European Central Bank may be in the process of become policy bedfellows with the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan and Bank of England by implementing quantitative easing as a monetary policy tool. The ECB has been considering this as well as negative interest rates to protect from decreasing inflation. These negative interest rates would affect deposits at the ECB since these banks would be required to actually pay to park their money. The monetary policy motive for this would be that these banks, avoiding the extra ‘tax,’ would rather lend out their money to the private sector. This would spur growth and ideally protect against the low inflation. Quantitative easing is a little trickier for the Eurozone. Whereas the US and UK can purchase bonds from their own individual markets, the ECB has 18 countries to choose from. Buying from France could give an unfair advantage, whereas purchasing bonds from Greece could throw Germany into an uproar. Some economists suggest that the ECB purchase Treasuries from the Fed to help unwind our rounds of quantitative easing. What a ‘taper tantrum’ that might cause.

While the economy is improving, there is still a long road ahead. However, given that holding cash yields a 0% return, it is still an attractive time to invest, regardless of the current interest rate climate (see: Asset Class Returns). So, go out, get invested, become diversified and have a wonderful spring.

Laurel Mazur is Castle Rock Investment Company’s Research Associate. Laurel Mazur is a graduate student at the University of Denver pursuing a dual Master’s degree in Economics and Global Finance, Trade, and Economic Integration. Most of her research and writing focuses on international monetary economics and central banking. She can be reached at Laurel@CastleRockInvesting.com.